Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 228.645070 279.042429 341.823984 427.248203 542.811530 6.973253e+02 9.260472e+02
2025-06-22 169.650490 226.386686 306.361061 432.106059 634.613893 9.678325e+02 1.607869e+03
2025-06-29 139.578604 198.327049 288.880987 447.941910 743.492603 1.328824e+03 2.788408e+03
2025-07-06 116.605643 173.188368 266.207699 443.807422 813.541788 1.671553e+03 4.417370e+03
2025-07-13 107.289555 166.606959 270.772653 488.101684 1001.960240 2.445396e+03 8.944385e+03
2025-07-20 99.216205 159.973970 272.896709 527.898862 1207.453563 3.526608e+03 1.923561e+04
2025-07-27 91.609013 152.432118 271.063026 558.241695 1412.790102 4.956364e+03 4.430676e+04
2025-08-03 84.178853 143.737815 264.662717 575.347849 1595.731323 6.706597e+03 1.102301e+05
2025-08-10 77.038910 134.346553 254.614057 579.524776 1743.125099 8.713335e+03 3.062625e+05
2025-08-17 69.882026 123.817187 239.892635 565.937769 1817.514945 1.056089e+04 9.052104e+05
2025-08-24 63.629891 114.276519 225.656067 549.326416 1871.563513 1.256886e+04 3.716813e+06
2025-08-31 58.186240 105.731109 212.275285 531.322844 1910.175367 1.475439e+04 3.364804e+07
2025-09-07 57.046194 106.394943 221.753350 591.801811 2421.158256 2.718560e+04 NaN
2025-09-14 53.407728 101.121460 215.447617 597.612769 2652.990405 3.899931e+04 NaN
2025-09-21 50.881545 97.999566 214.134899 621.461222 3047.890382 6.503648e+04 NaN
2025-09-28 47.528570 92.561267 205.623868 615.035787 3231.702705 9.243663e+04 NaN
2025-10-05 46.904907 93.399034 214.573120 683.288355 4172.025971 2.591081e+05 NaN
2025-10-12 45.952898 93.314727 220.934243 745.377405 5275.010221 9.386266e+05 NaN
2025-10-19 44.599306 92.061278 223.599281 793.179748 6431.811238 5.068718e+06 NaN
2025-10-26 42.846535 89.586275 222.036454 820.300222 7471.243568 6.111593e+07 NaN
2025-11-02 40.818372 86.176779 216.903014 826.940836 8273.220504 5.592702e+10 NaN
2025-11-09 38.438643 81.616334 207.305661 805.365908 8538.051582 NaN NaN
2025-11-16 36.181919 77.178516 197.486121 779.093142 8668.415335 NaN NaN